The Return of the Golden Kite: Japan’s Return to the Strategic Stage

In ancient Japanese mythology the Golden Kite, one of the highest decorative orders of the Japanese military, was a messenger bird which enabled the Emperor Jimmu to defeat his enemies. The order was abolished in 1947 after American occupation. Yet now the spirit of the Golden Kite is back, all at the behest of the US. However, the Japanese will be wary of the myth of Icarus, of flying too near the sun and having its wings burnt.

The ‘Entente Cordiale’ began in 2023 with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin preparing the way for the MOU ( Memorandum of Understanding for Research, Development, Test, Evaluation Projects ). This will develop cooperation in Ballistic Missile systems ( GPI – Glide Phase Interceptor). Japan will now reexport Patriot missiles, having a license from the US. Japan is seeking to nurture new technology know how in the defense industry. However, some are not so hopeful about US-Japan military ties. The Diplomat recently mentioned that:

Concerns remain, however, about the barriers to harness this momentum. On the part of Japan, for example, while many Japanese see this period as the most severe post -war security environment, and there is a call for greater support to enhance security and stability in the region, there is an internal cultural barrier that resists Japan’s increasing organic defense capability, slowing Tokyo’s ability to implement tangible outcomes.

There are deep historical divisions between the US and Japan. Yet in today’s geopolitical world of flux and realpolitik the Cold War divisions of ideological foes is unhelpful. No more the clear cut ‘Capitalism-Communism’ division. In the new epoch of resource and global realignment – the most unlikely of bedfellows operate. However, with World War II a not too distant memory there are echoes of Hamlet’s disgust at his mother’s remarriage after his father’s death, “The funeral baked meats did coldly furnish forth the marriage tables.”

The US-Japan alliance illustrates the convergence of strategic interests, despite past differences. It appears huge ideological and culture differences can be overcome when the alternative is the Russian bear and Chinese ‘Tianxia‘.( ‘All under Heaven’ – China at the center of their cultural world). The CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) wrote that Japan is moving from a ‘Spear and Shield’ capability  (US the spear, Japan the shield) to one of ‘Spear and Sword’, a more independent strategy. Therefore, Biden and Kishida in August discussed the purchase of Hypersonic Missile Interceptors. From December 2022, under the NSS (National Security Strategy) the Japanese ascertained the need to spend the 2% of GDP and build a counterstrike offensive capability to destroy enemy launch sites. The theatre of grossraum geopolitics is shifting to the Asia Pacific region. Japan sees multiple threats from China, North Korea and Russia. In a remark of clarity and prescience Kishida stated that “the line between contingency and peacetime is increasingly becoming blurred.” This was a tacit acknowledgement that war, over the long term, is fought in economic and technical realms.

There is also good reason for the US to have an economic partner in the region. It can replace the deglobalization problems with Chinese supply chains. There are growing Japanese investments into US Shipbuilding, possibly into US Steel. On April 10th the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida visited Washington and the main topic was the strategic and economic alliances of the two countries and the broader region. The Chinese Navy is growing and has more individual vessels than the US Navy (though less total tonnage). No surprise then that in March Carlos del Toro ( Navy Secretary) visited Japan to drum up investment in a US sector contracting in comparison to Chinese growth.

Cause for concern, however, would be the global militarization of the world. More and more the industrial-economic epoch of the twentieth first century becomes Keynesian -yet more dangerous in conception. From Russia to the UK military stocks are booming. All aspects of economies; industry, technology and human resources become tied to a period of “total mobilization.” Conversations about conscription become normalized, for the professional land army is seen as inadequate. As in Japan, civil companies, such as Mitsubishi, turn to the military realm. The Golden Kite is flying again.

This alliance is all about realpolitik. Imperial Japan, existing from 1868 to 1947, exhibited a remarkable industrial and military resurgence culminating in the extreme nationalistic and military hegemony of Asia before its cataclysmic demise in World War II. Yet this period of modern history exhibits the usual division of Occident and Orient into simplistic blocks. Whilst Carl Schmitt had described the world in the 1920s as divided between grossraums – one bloc of “mercantile” nations (Britain then, America now) and the others as “land-based” (the “culture” states of Germany, Russia), it underpinned a more ideological divide typical of the twentieth century. Schmitt believed the liberal democratic mercantile nations were unrooted, globalized, and losing cultural ties. The land-based states exhibited a “blood and soil” nationalism and solidarity with a strong sense of cultural superiority and conservatism. Although Schmitt later to join the Nazi party and remains a controversial figure in political philosophy and political science because of that tie, his geopolitical thinking was extremely influential and remains worthwhile to discuss. The world is splintering into grossraums due to resource scarcity and assertion by culture states. However, while Japan straddled the divide during the early twentieth century, needing both a solid land-based culture of nationalism plus an aggressive mercantile one for its expanding population, it now sits uncomfortable between the moving plates of Russia and China with a declining population.

Yet the US-Japan axis is crucial leverage in a region of contagion. Chinese supported Myanmar (Burma) is another hotspot with the military government losing ground to ethnic groups in Rakhin province. This goes against Chinese “Tianxia” ( peace under heaven) for its satellite states need stability. Soft Chinese loans and indebtment of the satellites is more of the Chinese colonial style. Taiwan likewise is another possible flashpoint as the geopolitical realm returns to haunt Asia. The US will have painful memories of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan with a general societal aversity to “boots on the ground.” Deterrents through proxies is the new watchword of the twenty first century.

The dilemma of the blurring of the economic and political also overrides potential partnerships. The meeting between Biden and Kishida this week is also likely to discuss AUKUS membership. The pact between the US, Britain and Australia is meant to counter China’s position in the Indo Pacific region. This pact will see Australia receiving nuclear powered submarines. Seeing the economic woes of the US $32 trillion national debt- Japan becomes a convenient manufacturer to take up the slack. Yet Australia will be hyper cautious of upsetting its trade partner China. There is also a history of Japan “losing” secrets in various scandals , usually involving a beautiful Chinese courtesan. In today’s multi layered world there are a kaleidoscope of aspects and alliances. Australia will be reluctant to expand the highly sensitive cutting edge tech research with Japan on board. Japan won’t be on the AUKUS team as yet, but they are moving closer.

Wherever you look there is a coalescence of pacts and alliances.  There is a process of rearmament, GDP spending promises. The economic and political is so blurred that, ancient conceptions of the abhorrence of war, has become discarded. Civilian war is tolerated. Economists see growth in arms spending. Nations, such as Japan, for historic reasons demilitarized, are joining the maelstrom of “total mobilization.” Finland’s ultra liberal female PM touts the virtues of its reserve soldiers. In many ways the epoch of materialism, whether capitalist or communist, has led to what Augusto Del Noce, the Italian philosopher, called the “age of secularization.” It is a world without a Political Theology.

In the age of the “Golden Kite” there is no profit in touting turtle doves.

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